As of 15:00 GMT on October 26, 2023, the xrp price usd fluctuated from 0.47-0.52 US dollars (amplitude 10.6%), and the 24-hour trading value was 1.12 billion US dollars (CoinMarketCap #CMC257). The variation is mainly decided by the superposition of five factors. The U.S. SEC presented conflicting indications at the executive litigation hearing against Ripple. Court documents suggested that the SEC might expand the use of the securities law, causing the xrp price usd to drop 9.3% to $0.473 in 90 minutes since the hearing started. But when Ripple cited the Hinman document (an internal 2018 SEC memo) to invoke immunity, the price recovered by 6.8% to $0.505, forming a V-shaped reversal. Technically, the whale address on-chain (over 10 million XRP) deposited 18 million (approximately 8.64 million US dollars) at less than $0.48, pushing the Binance perpetual contract funding rate up to 0.018% (long position dominated), but the order size at $0.52 was 95 million XRP (approximately 49.4 million US dollars). Form a short-term resistance wall (Data source: Santiment #SANAPI).
Market sentiment is divided. The social media platform X (ex-Twitter) rumor that “the SEC freezes Ripple’s foreign assets” plummeted the negative sentiment index (LunarCrush #LUNARCRUSH) from -0.42 to -1.05. The derivatives market open interest went down by 22% (Coinglass #CGDATA). Meanwhile, the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates in November rose to 89% (CME FedWatch tool), the US dollar index (DXY) was at 106.7, triggering a one-day 3.1% disappearance of the combined market capitalization of cryptocurrencies. The 30-day correlation coefficient between Bitcoin and XRP dipped to 0.51 (historical median 0.72), demonstrating a loss of its safe-haven status. Ripple partner MoneyGram’s stock dropped 5.3% (NYSE:MGI), dragging market sentiment for its cross-border payments business down to an average daily settlement of $230 million (Q3 financial report figures).
The surprise technical breakdown of the South Korean exchange Upbit stopped the withdrawal of the XRP/KRW trading pair, sending the premium rate of the South Korean won higher from 2.8% to 9.4% (CryptoQuant #CRQ001). The inflow of arbitrage funds made the global xrp price usd move by 7.5% in 25 minutes. According to on-chain data, the outflow of XRP from Upbit hot Wallet increased by 340% during this time, valued at over 22 million US dollars (XRP Scan blockchain browser). On technicals, XRP’s RSI (14th) increased from 47.5 to 52.1, the Bollinger bands tightened to $0.475- $0.525, and the 4-hour MACD histogram turned positive (+0.0003), indicating short-term buying pressure is gathering momentum. Bloomberg analysts observed that if the SEC officially appeals within 30 days (with a 68% chance), the xrp price usd would fall into the support zone of $0.42- $0.45 (Technical analysis Report #BLOOMBERG20231026).